Can Negotiation Breakdown Probabilities of Laissez-Faire Agents Be Derived A Priori?
Ronald P. Loui
UWashington Univ. at St-Louis
We present a different AI model of negotiation where agents are driven by
dynamic expectations (there is no solution concept and there is no
recursive modeling of beliefs). We require two assumptions to paint a
(1) there is an empirically observable objective probability of breakdown
that is monotonic (at some granularity) in elapsed time since last progress;
(2) there is a nonstandard utility attached to the act of unilateral
breakdown: a process utility that models the satisfaction of breaking down
on a non-cooperative negotiating partner. This is a procedural fairness
adjustment, not the substantive distributive fairness effect that has been
trendy in the economics literature.
We observe the variety of behaviors that can be generated by agents
constructing action according to such Pessimism-Punishment (PP)
negotiation models. We define a laissez-faire path for two PP agents
starting in a given position and the proper calibration of their breakdown
probabilities conditioned only on position. Finally, we discuss what
iterative process could be used to reduce a priori miscalibration of breakdown
Ronald Loui (b. Honolulu, 1961) is an active American scholar and engineer
working at the interface of artificial intelligence and philosophy. In
his work he uses computation to propose new models for logic, decision,
and games. He is primarily an innovator, mathematical modeler,
polemicist, and consummate gawk programmer. He is best known on the
internet as the first person to write in detail about the superiority of
scripting languages ("Why GAWK for AI?", ACM SIGPLAN, 1995). His doctoral
dissertation (Rochester, 1987) is regarded as the first attempt at a
Mathematics of Argument.
Ronald Loui's undergraduate dissertation (Harvard, 1982), on Optimal
Stochastic Paths, won the ACM Forsythe Award and continues to have impact
on communications and robotics. He is currently working on a significant
national security project with collaborators in computer networking and
datamining and is co-patentor of a content-based internet firewall.
Ronald P. Loui is an Associate Professor of Computer Science and
Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis, where he started after
a year as a Sloan Cognitive Science Fellow (Stanford, 1988).
Last modified: Fri Aug 8 11:38:17 CST 2006